News 10 Mar 2016

The Point: 2016 MX Nationals predictions

Pre-season predictions ahead of the 2016 Australian motocross season.

With the 2016 Motul MX Nationals championship fast approaching, MotoOnline.com.au gathered the opinions of select industry insiders to hear their rider predictions for the upcoming season.

Image: TCPhotographics.

Image: TCPhotographics.

Adam Bailey (AUS-X Open event director):
MX1 – 1. Kade Mosig 2. Dan Reardon 3. Dean Ferris
Why – I think its Kade’s time. Last year he proved consistency and I just feel like he has a great system in place, his personal life is really strong and he’ll come out swinging. Dan will be strong all season long and is so smart and consistent, he’d be my second choice for the championship. Ferris will be incredibly fast no doubt, just not sure he can remain injury free all year. I hope so as it’ll be great to watch.

MX2 – 1. Caleb Ward 2. Jake Moss 3. Dylan Wills
Why – By the sounds of things, Caleb Ward is on fire at the moment. KTM has a great team and environment, that will bring out the best in him. Jake Moss is super fast on a 250 and Dylan Wills has shown he can win races, I think he’ll be a bit more consistently up there this year.

Joel Ryan (C&R Imports promotions/race support):
MX1 – 1. Dean Ferris 2. Todd Waters 3. Kade Mosig
Why – I think Dean’s going to be the man to beat returning from Europe with heaps of speed, he’s already set the pace in NZ and Conondale with some pre-season race wins. I think the combination of Dean on a good fast bike, with guys like Craig Dack behind him I think we will see Dean on the top step at Coolum. Todd’s certainly going to be the main rival for Dean to beat and it’s going to make for a very exciting season of racing between the pair. Both had their time on the MXGP cut short and are world class riders that should be at the top of the field. Kade Mosig is going to be a man on a mission, after a great season last year but still losing his ride with CDR, he’s going to have something to prove and I think we’re going to see him consistently on the podium.

MX2 – 1. Caleb Ward 2. Wade Hunter 3. Jake Moss
Why – MX2 is always such a hard class to pick a winner, like each year there will be multiple guys who take round wins: Wade Hunter, Jed Beaton, Caleb Ward, Kale Makeham, Nathan Crawford and Jake Moss will all take wins during the season but as is always the case in the MX2 class it comes down to consistency. I think Caleb had a good second half of his season in 2015 and he knows what he needs to do to be in the mix each weekend this year and I think we will see him come out on top. The new Yamaha 250 is fast I think Wade Hunter is going to be up the front of the field, and Moss is never lacking speed so if he can stay on the bike and injury free he will be a tough guy to beat.

Alex Gobert (MotoOnline.com.au founder):
MX1 – 1. Dean Ferris 2. Todd Waters 3. Kirk Gibbs
Why – Between Ferris and Waters it’s difficult to decide, but when you factor in the experience of CDR Yamaha and his pre-season form so far, I think Ferris will have the edge. As for third – and this will be extremely close throughout – I’m not ruling out reigning champion Gibbs to be there in the mix. It’s truly impossible to split many of these great riders when you think of the guys not on this list, but this is the order I’m going with as of today.

MX2 – 1. Caleb Ward 2. Jake Moss 3. Jed Beaton
Why – Now on a full factory team I can see Ward really benefiting from that. He’s an incredible talent and has won plenty of races in the past, so now’s his time to piece it together for the championship. Jake Moss, as long as he stays fit, will win a number of rounds and I can see Jed Beaton stepping up for a top three now part of DPH Motorsport.

Image: Adam Spence.

Image: Adam Spence.

Joe Stevens (NRGTV commentator):
MX1 – 1. Dean Ferris 2. Matt Moss 3. Todd Waters
Why – MX1 is the hardest class to pick a top three in as there are so many riders who can win races, podium and factor into the championship for all 10 rounds! I feel that the Dean Ferris pairing with CDR Yamaha is going to be too strong for the competition this season in the long run, but Matt Moss will be coming back with a point to prove like he always does after last years disappointing season and will be consistently on the podium. Todd Waters will put his experience and time in Europe towards winning races, overalls and be a huge title threat. Kirk Gibbs will become increasingly stronger as we near the half way point of the series and he will be close to the podium, but the early season intensity may be too much for him coming off his supercross injuries. Kade Mosig and Dan Reardon will also feature high up in the championship chase.

MX2 – 1. Caleb ward 2. Jake Moss 3. Jed Beaton
Why – I have backed Caleb Ward for Victory in both MXD and then MX2 since I first witnessed him destroy the field at the 2012 junior nationals at Coolum. I feel the kid has that ‘wow’ factor in style and speed that leads to wins and championships. However, I feel he has to get the job done this year with a full KTM factory program and a solid pre-season coming into 2016 healthy, he will be very hard to beat at the tracks he favors, but as with the last few seasons it’s the tracks Caleb struggles at that may cost him the title. Jake Moss will be fast, you can take that to the bank! He will win races and factor in the title chase. I think an overall championship podium against the younger riders after coming back from so much adversity will be a win for Jake and a base to move forward healthy into 2017. Jed Beaton should have his consistency issues from last season worked out and I feel he will run up front all season, along with the likes of Nathan Crawford, Wade Hunter, Wilson Todd, Jayden Rykers and Dylan Wills all battling for podium positions.

Simon Makker (MotoOnline.com.au contributor):
MX1 – 1. Kirk Gibbs 2.Dean Ferris 3. Matt Moss
Why – Choosing a top three in this class is like being told to choose a favourite child. It’s going to be so tight between the top five to seven and anyone in the top 10 could win on any given day. That means consistency is going to play an even bigger role in the way the championship plays out than it did last year, and the king of consistency is Kirk Gibbs. Gibbsy might not be the flashiest rider to watch but he knows how to finish on the podium every round and that’s going to be invaluable in such a stacked field. Dean Ferris will thrive under the CDR tent and on the YZ450F. I think he’ll probably win more races than anyone, but he hasn’t been the picture of consistency through his career. Matt Moss has extra motivation this year and feels like he’s got some unfinished business but the quality of the class has improved hugely since 2014 when he won the title fairly easily. I’ve also gotta put an honourable mention out to Todd Waters and Dan Reardon, who I think will also be banging down the door of the top three. It’s going to be a fascinating contest.

MX2 – 1. Caleb Ward 2. Jake Moss 3. Wade Hunter
Why – Ward’s sheer speed is just ridiculous and as part of the KTM team he’s going to be able to focus wholly and solely on just turning up and twisting grips. Last year a slow start to the season cost him, but with another year of experience under his belt I think he’ll be a smarter rider in 2016. I’m expecting big things out of Jake Moss this year. After a write-off 2015 he has the advantage of coming in as a bit of an unknown, but at the same time this year will either make or break his career. If he has another shocker he’ll be spending his off-season looking at classified job ads. Serco Yamaha has taken a bit of a punt with Wade Hunter this year, but I think he’ll reward their faith in him with some solid results. He’s earned his team seat with hard work and determination (and no shortage of natural talent) and he’ll be eager to make the most of the opportunity.

Image: Andy McGechan (bikesportnz.com).

Image: Andy McGechan (bikesportnz.com).

Kevin Williams (MX Nationals promoter):
MX1 – 1. Dean Ferris 2. Todd Waters 3. Matt Moss
Why – Its a flip of the coin for me with Ferris and Waters, from what we have seen you give it to Ferris, and you can never under estimate Matt Moss.

MX2 – 1. Caleb Ward 2 .Dylan Wills 3. Jed Beaton
Why – Ward is very skilled and committed and Wills continues to grow as a rider and Beaton has a point to prove in 2016.

Adam Spence (Foremost Media production manager):
MX1 – 1. Matt Moss 2. Dean Ferris 3. Todd Waters
Why – I’m going out on a limb here and sticking with my gut feeling that Matt Moss will really suprise a lot of people in 2016. He’s feeling great aboard his new NPE Monster Energy Kawasaki, looking super fast and everything just seems to be coming back for him. I think Moss has a tonne to prove this year, it’s no secret he hates any position other than first and I think that hunger to win will be stronger than ever this season. Dean Ferris and Todd Waters will be super tough in 2016, these guys are no joke and they’ve had a strong pre-season – you’ll be able to throw a blanket over them that’s for sure. You may ask, what about Gibbs? I think he could prove me totally wrong, and probably will, but he’s coming off a serious injury and at this stage we’re unsure if that could hinder his results this season.

MX2 – 1. Caleb Ward 2. Wade Hunter 3. Jake Moss
Why – This class, much like the MX1 category is a tough one, there’s a long list of riders who can do serious damage. You’ve got Jed Beaton, Nathan Crawford, Dylan Wills, Kale Makeham, the list just keeps going. But I feel it’s Ward’s time to shine, I’ve backed him for quite some time now and I have came away looking slightly silly – but I’m sticking with him in 2016. The way he rides the motorcycle is amazing, if he can put together a consistent season, he’ll be the champion. Hunter is on one of the best bikes out there and his pre-season form is looking promising, he’s a bit of an underdog, but I feel he’ll be impressive this year. Moss is older, wiser and more experienced than anyone else in this class. He’s raced with the world’s best and done very well doing so, you just can’t ignore that, if he can stay healthy and keep hanging it loose with the kids, he’ll be a strong contender in 2016.

Aiden Williams (NRGTV presenter):
MX1 – 1. Dean Ferris 2. Todd Waters 3. Kade Mosig
Why – After seeing Dean return to Australia at the MX Nationals launch with CDR Yamaha, I believe he is on a whole new level, Waters will be solid and Kade Mosig is on a new bike with a point to prove.

MX2 – 1. Caleb Ward 2. Jayden Rykers 3. Jed Beaton
Why – I believe Caleb has been the quickest in the class for a number of years, consistency will determine his year. Rykers is an MXD dark horse with so much strength and ability and Jed Beaton is always fast and now has something to prove.

Steve Jennings (Alpinestars Australia brand manager):
MX1 – 1. Matt Moss 2. Kade Mosig 3. Dean Ferris
Why – I think the Kawasaki boys will be hard to beat this year.

MX2 – 1. Jake Moss 2. Dylan Wills 3. Nathan Crawford
Why – In this class I’m sure we’ve got the cream of the crop in Alpinestars!

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